My thoughts on regional's.
Well most people have now qualified with there Tier 1 or 2 decks (Rebels/Fires/Skies/Spirit). Leaving a whole host of Rogue decks and people scrambling to find scissors to defeat the paper that in turn defeats rock. I find it interesting the way regional's really are just that, Stuart mentioned as much in his article.
So I had a look at how different it is over here in the UK to the USA and found that as more hardcore people play over there you tend to find sites covering a number of deck types and ideas. But the UK is different rather than spend a large amount on building decks most of us prefer to be creative, breaking the mould as it were.
What this means is that from one area to the next you can't be sure of what your going to come up against, where as in the US everyone knows what they will hit.
So what does this mean?
Well for one it means that you can't be sure of what you're going to encounter. It's no good making a sideboard against Rebels if 40% of the field are playing Fires. Strangely you can't really make a 100% Rogue deck that will work either as no one deck type is in control.
What it does encourage is Tier 2 decks to really come into their own. In fact a lot of people seem to have noticed that making a Tier 2 deck that is 30% good against most, with a sideboard that increases this to 60%, is the way to go.
And so the seesaw begins, because as soon as over 30% of the field start to play this way people realise that speed is the way to overcome them, meaning Fires, Rebels and every other deck that's fast is the way to go. You see the problem with Rogue decks is that they have to throw away good ideas for slower more stable ones. For instance many Fires decks call time before turn 7, where as Rebels tends to gain control around turn 8 (the others vary but tend to fit into this bracket too). Rogue decks, on the other hand, tend to stall until as late as turn 11 or 12 before making anything that would be considered a strong game winning play.
And now my predictions for the Qualifying decks types, that I will be attending in London…
In top spot I expect to see Fires,
Then B/U (with or without R) Spirit,
Followed by Skies.
Maybe you will see Counter Rebels, but I really doubt it now everyone tries to pack Terminates and Decree's.
So why do I still go for Tier 1 decks?
Basically if you have a Rogue deck and your still hoping it will go the distance you're too late. The seesaw has tipped and you will see a large proportion of Rogues there, meaning your deck could be aimed at the wrong spot. Lose one match up and you're in the bottom bracket fighting it out with other Rogues, not a fun place to be.
So what will I be taking to Regionals?
Stuart suggested I play Fires and seeing as this is the deck I expect to see 60-70% of people using to qualify I tend to see the point.
But what will I take?
I'm toying with the idea of a white blue counter heavy deck and may take that, although I tend to be horrid with a counter based deck, it's different enough to give some decks problems.
Or I could go with my favourite colour running Suicide Black; the shock value alone should help me win some games. I mean who plays Mono Black!? Hehe
All I know for sure is that I'm 90% certain to take a Rogue deck, after all I have said I prefer to have a laugh than play on the seesaw. After attending tournaments for years and never getting past the 4th round I don't see any reason to change now.
So see you all at London, just go easy on me, after all I'm in it for the fun.
We do now, what must be done now.